Impact Modelling and Scenario Analysis
Conduct ‘what if’ analysis to determine the impact potential scenarios might have on the portfolio's collective resources, schedules, and business value. Monitor corrective actions taken within the portfolio.
Improvement Planning
Practices-Outcomes-Metrics (POM)
Representative POMs are described for Impact Modelling and Scenario Analysis at each level of maturity.
- 1Initial
- Practice
- Perform some initial high-level impact monitoring.
- Outcome
- Individual managers may have some initial oversight of costs, business value/benefits, and risks.
- 2Basic
- Practice
- Monitor changes in the business impact or value at risk for key programmes and projects, based on individual benefit assessments.
- Outcome
- There is growing transparency of the business importance of selected programmes and projects.
- Metric
- % of programmes/projects with impact monitoring.
- Practice
- Track business benefits at the end of the programme or project.
- Outcome
- The finance department has visibility of the “real” costs of the programme or project.
- Metric
- % of projects with benefit tracking.
- Practice
- Monitor key risks logged within a project risk register.
- Outcome
- Key risks can be addressed by the programme or project manager.
- Metric
- % of risks logged within a risk register that are monitored.
- Practice
- Monitor the progress and impact of corrective actions for key programmes and projects.
- Outcome
- Basic transparency is available on the impact of corrective actions.
- Metric
- % of programmes/projects that monitor the impact of corrective actions.
- Practice
- Conduct scenario analysis for selected programmes and projects.
- Outcome
- “What if” analysis for key programmes and projects can be carried out for high severity risks or scenarios.
- Metric
- % of programmes/projects with scenario analysis conducted.
- 3Intermediate
- Practice
- Monitor changes in the business impact or value at risk for most programmes and projects by collecting information from a structured Benefits Assessment and Realization (BAR) process.
- Outcome
- There is clear transparency with respect to any changes in the expected business impact of most programmes and projects.
- Metric
- % of programmes/projects with impact monitoring.
- Practice
- Track business benefits between the stages of project approval and project completion (inclusive).
- Outcome
- The business case and cost–benefit analysis can be compared to see if the expected benefit is gained.
- Metric
- % of projects with benefit tracking.
- Practice
- Establish a formal process to monitor portfolio risks, and communicate these risks to other portfolios.
- Outcome
- Risks can be monitored and addressed at a business unit level.
- Metric
- % of risks logged within a risk register that are monitored.
- Practice
- Monitor the progress and impact of corrective actions for most programmes and projects.
- Outcome
- There is clear transparency on the impact of corrective actions across most programmes and projects.
- Metric
- % of programmes/projects that monitor the impact of corrective actions.
- Practice
- Conduct scenario analysis for most programmes and projects within the portfolio.
- Outcome
- Decision-making and planning are enhanced by the availability of scenario analysis across most of the portfolio.
- Metric
- % of programmes/projects with scenario analysis conducted.
- 4Advanced
- Practices
- Regularly monitor changes in the business impact or value at risk for all programmes and projects by collecting information from a structured Benefits Assessment and Realization (BAR) process.
- Actively engage Portfolio Management in the Benefits Assessment and Realization (BAR) analysis.
- Outcome
- There is clear transparency with respect to any changes in the expected business impact of all programmes and projects, and aggregated monitoring of the business impact of the entire portfolio.
- Metric
- % of programmes/projects with impact monitoring.
- Practice
- Track business benefits throughout the operational support life cycle.
- Outcome
- The true business value/benefits reflects the operational support costs, and can be compared against the anticipated benefits.
- Metric
- % of projects with benefit tracking.
- Practice
- Adopt the process to monitor portfolio risks across each portfolio organization-wide, and share relevant risk information.
- Outcome
- Risks can be monitored and addressed across the organization.
- Metric
- % of risks logged within a risk register that are monitored.
- Practice
- Monitor the progress and impact of corrective actions across all programmes and projects.
- Outcome
- There is clear transparency on the impact of corrective actions across all programmes and projects.
- Metric
- % of programmes/projects that monitor the impact of corrective actions.
- Practice
- Conduct scenario analysis for the entire portfolio, and consider any new strategic decisions (e.g. market development, governance issues).
- Outcome
- Decision-making and planning are enhanced by the availability of scenario analysis across the entire portfolio.
- Metric
- % of programmes/projects with scenario analysis conducted.
- 5Optimized
- Practices
- Continually review and update changes in the business impact or value at risk for the portfolio.
- Implement a structured feedback loop between Portfolio Management (PM) and Benefits Assessment and Realization (BAR).
- Outcomes
- There is clear transparency with respect to any changes in the expected business impact of all programmes and projects.
- Impact analysis continually addresses the organization's requirements.
- Metrics
- % of programmes/projects with impact monitoring.
- Yes/No indicators re feedback loops between PM and BAR.
- Practice
- Focus the tracking of business benefits on the total business value contributions from the portfolio's investments.
- Outcome
- The comparison of actual versus anticipated business value/benefits enables senior management to adjust their spending plans to support the delivery of the required ROI.
- Metrics
- % of projects with benefit tracking.
- % of the portfolio that delivers the expected ROI (in line with the business case).
- Practice
- Continually optimize and benchmark the process for monitoring portfolio risks through use of feedback and improvement loops.
- Outcomes
- The process provides clear visibility into all portfolio-related risks.
- All relevant stakeholders are kept up-to-date on important changes in risks.
- Metrics
- % of risks logged within a risk register that are monitored.
- % of risks reported to relevant stakeholders.
- Practice
- Continually optimize the process used for monitoring the progress and impact of corrective actions.
- Outcome
- There is clear and up-to-date transparency on the impact of corrective actions across all programmes and projects.
- Metric
- % of programmes/projects that monitor the impact of corrective actions.
- Practice
- Continually update the scenarios used for the analysis and planning of the portfolios in accordance with the organization's overall strategy.
- Outcomes
- Decision-making and planning are enhanced by the availability of scenario analysis across the entire business ecosystem portfolio.
- The assumptions underlying these scenarios are based on expert advice or opinion (internal and external to the organization).
- Metrics
- % of programmes/projects with scenario analysis conducted.
- % of scenarios revised due to the “current working climate”.